Оценка рисков инвестиционных проектов
*) Прочие расходы: списание по путевым листам коммунальные услуги кассовое обслуживание электроэнергия услуги связи реклама
**) Налоги, отчисления, сборы всего:
• налог на добавленную стоимость
• автодороги
• налог на имущество
• отчисления по ФОТ
• налог на прибыль
Таблица 6
Стоимость основных фондов после инвестиционного периода, (тыс. руб.)
|
Счет |
Название |
Сумма |
|
01/ЗД |
Здания |
504.8 |
|
01/МЕБ |
Мебель |
20.0 |
|
01/ОБ |
Машины и оборудование |
168.8 |
|
01/ТР |
Транспортные средства |
80.0 |
|
01/ДР |
Другие виды основных средств |
125.0 |
|
01 |
Всего |
898.6 |
Таблица 7
Расчет фонда оплаты труда по инвестиционному проекту
|
Показатель |
Величина |
|
1. Среднесписочное число работающих (чел.) |
15 |
|
2. Средний оклад работающего (руб./мес.) |
4550.3 |
|
3. Годовой фонд рабочего времени, включая отпускные периоды (чел./мес.). |
18 |
|
4. Годовой ФОТ (тыс. руб.) |
810.95 |
Таблица 8
Расшифровка затрат за 9 месяцев 2005 г.
|
Показатель |
Величина |
|
1. Износ основных средств |
9,82 |
|
2. Списано по путевым листам |
0,30 |
|
3. Коммерческие расходы |
249,53 |
|
4. Кассовое обслуживание |
0,913 |
|
5. Списано на электроэнергию |
8,42 |
|
6. Зарплата |
24,27 |
|
7. Транспортный налог |
0,24 |
|
8. Пенсионный фонд |
7,04 |
|
9. Медицинское страхование |
0,87 |
|
10. Социальное страхование |
1,47 |
|
11. Автодороги |
12,54 |
|
12. Владельцы транспортных средств |
1,37 |
|
13. Услуги телефонной станции |
23,00 |
|
Примечание: Расшифровка внереализационных расходов (тыс. руб.) Налог на содержание жилфонда 7651.6 Единый целевой сбор 280.1 Налог на имущество 12755.7 Образование 242.7 Всего: 20930.1 | |
Приложение 2
Массив случайных чисел для расчета денежного потока по методу Монте-Карло
| Вариант | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | |||||||||||||
| 1 | 0% | -8,46% | 7,43% | 0,21% | -3,47% | 8,90% | 8,88% | -9,28% | -7,02% | 9,21% | 9,60% | -2,83% | ||||||||||||
| 2 | 0% | -2,91% | 9,57% | -2,84% | -0,16% | 2,35% | -9,64% | -2,27% | -1,57% | 3,44% | 1,71% | 6,09% | ||||||||||||
| 3 | 0% | 7,48% | -3,11% | 1,21% | 7,43% | -6,77% | -5,44% | 0,64% | 4,94% | 2,90% | -9,46% | 6,52% | ||||||||||||
| 4 | 0% | -3,65% | 6,02% | -8,16% | 2,68% | -7,51% | -4,05% | -3,10% | 5,51% | 0,00% | 9,12% | 1,05% | ||||||||||||
| 5 | 0% | -1,25% | -3,06% | 0,32% | 2,54% | 9,64% | -7,23% | 0,79% | 5,00% | 5,92% | -1,52% | -5,35% | ||||||||||||
| 6 | 0% | -0,26% | -3,67% | 9,69% | -4,72% | -2,23% | -4,44% | -6,05% | -1,99% | 1,22% | -6,59% | 3,82% | ||||||||||||
| 7 | 0% | -7,77% | 4,22% | -7,85% | 3,34% | 6,29% | 5,35% | 7,23% | -1,38% | 1,50% | -0,96% | 7,43% | ||||||||||||
| 8 | 0% | -5,99% | -3,36% | 0,55% | -0,32% | 9,05% | 2,69% | 2,20% | 7,00% | -3,27% | -5,42% | -2,77% | ||||||||||||
| 9 | 0% | 6,93% | 2,89% | 0,35% | -6,97% | -4,23% | -1,61% | 0,88% | -6,15% | -8,77% | 0,37% | 6,31% | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 0% | -9,60% | -9,41% | -1,52% | -2,61% | -9,44% | 1,04% | 4,51% | 1,67% | 2,46% | -1,72% | -6,66% | ||||||||||||
| 11 | 0% | -7,56% | -1,35% | 9,13% | 1,70% | -8,91% | 7,17% | 7,83% | 5,53% | 8,25% | 7,51% | -1,46% | ||||||||||||
| 12 | 0% | 4,42% | 7,82% | -5,16% | 5,61% | 1,78% | -7,05% | -5,47% | 9,09% | -2,81% | 6,79% | 4,70% | ||||||||||||
| 13 | 0% | 5,10% | 6,06% | -8,21% | 0,77% | 3,82% | 7,93% | -1,02% | 0,64% | -7,45% | 9,47% | 4,54% | ||||||||||||
| 14 | 0% | -9,84% | -9,15% | 8,74% | 5,96% | 7,02% | 3,14% | -2,82% | -8,55% | -4,30% | 1,73% | 8,74% | ||||||||||||
| 15 | 0% | 7,51% | 0,21% | 6,82% | -7,22% | 9,15% | -0,65% | -9,56% | -3,28% | -2,02% | 2,77% | 1,56% | ||||||||||||
| 16 | 0% | 8,00% | 0,01% | 0,39% | 4,77% | 6,28% | -1,67% | -1,52% | -6,87% | 5,81% | 6,04% | -6,28% | ||||||||||||
| 17 | 0% | -8,34% | 5,21% | -7,35% | -7,21% | 9,69% | -5,27% | 9,59% | -7,26% | 7,37% | 2,54% | 1,61% | ||||||||||||
| 18 | 0% | -8,19% | -3,76% | -4,39% | -5,40% | 9,41% | 2,22% | 3,18% | -7,54% | -3,91% | 4,67% | -6,79% | ||||||||||||
| 19 | 0% | 7,67% | -1,86% | -9,35% | 5,56% | 0,18% | 5,12% | -8,02% | 2,91% | -3,22% | -2,09% | -9,07% | ||||||||||||
| 20 | 0% | -7,29% | 4,72% | 7,47% | 6,04% | 5,64% | 9,38% | -0,48% | 6,47% | 0,94% | 6,00% | 5,75% | ||||||||||||
| 21 | 0% | -0,79% | 4,87% | 1,27% | 4,01% | 0,67% | -3,96% | -1,06% | 2,83% | 0,46% | -6,29% | 5,30% | ||||||||||||
| 22 | 0% | 3,31% | -6,72% | 7,49% | 0,61% | 2,73% | -7,52% | -2,09% | 5,11% | 2,94% | 2,84% | -9,17% | ||||||||||||
| 23 | 0% | 2,59% | -7,38% | 4,22% | 5,85% | 6,59% | -6,63% | -4,07% | -7,93% | 0,37% | -1,66% | -8,26% | ||||||||||||
| 24 | 0% | -2,32% | -0,58% | 7,60% | 1,24% | 6,37% | 8,13% | 9,50% | 9,78% | -5,71% | -2,43% | 6,89% | ||||||||||||
| 25 | 0% | 5,15% | 5,21% | -8,45% | 3,72% | -8,51% | 3,47% | 6,22% | -3,03% | 2,40% | -6,38% | 2,42% | ||||||||||||
| 26 | 0% | -2,72% | 5,08% | -6,19% | 9,43% | 2,93% | -5,10% | 7,00% | 4,77% | -2,43% | -8,26% | 6,18% | ||||||||||||
| 27 | 0% | -4,87% | 3,42% | 2,48% | -3,26% | -3,52% | 4,34% | 8,93% | 8,35% | 4,34% | 6,99% | -9,92% | ||||||||||||
| 28 | 0% | -1,11% | 1,50% | -8,68% | -9,96% | 2,40% | -7,63% | 2,92% | -1,51% | -7,71% | -8,82% | -5,63% | ||||||||||||
| 29 | 0% | -9,49% | 4,13% | -2,96% | -1,45% | 0,02% | -2,25% | 2,62% | -4,37% | -9,98% | 9,33% | -6,89% | ||||||||||||
| 30 | 0% | -9,73% | 0,01% | -9,39% | -1,03% | 8,89% | -7,32% | 3,98% | -8,57% | -4,54% | -3,18% | -9,17% | ||||||||||||
| 31 | 0% | -0,51% | -4,29% | 9,56% | -0,94% | -7,32% | 2,89% | 5,97% | -1,33% | 1,41% | 7,05% | -4,11% | ||||||||||||
| 32 | 0% | 7,91% | -2,12% | -8,02% | -1,71% | 0,80% | -9,93% | 3,75% | -3,04% | -7,52% | -2,10% | -3,90% | ||||||||||||
| 33 | 0% | 1,89% | 0,87% | 9,49% | 3,38% | 7,82% | -5,41% | 4,60% | 3,21% | 6,62% | 1,18% | -3,21% | ||||||||||||
| 34 | 0% | -0,69% | -9,32% | -3,72% | 9,36% | 6,39% | 2,46% | -8,82% | 0,27% | 2,57% | -0,42% | -4,39% | ||||||||||||
| 35 | 0% | 8,32% | 0,13% | 6,50% | -2,23% | 3,27% | 0,14% | 5,75% | -2,06% | -7,28% | 3,24% | -5,65% | ||||||||||||
| 36 | 0% | -6,11% | 8,99% | 5,97% | 8,86% | -3,65% | 6,00% | -9,06% | 5,54% | -7,35% | -0,53% | -5,24% | ||||||||||||
| 37 | 0% | -5,52% | -6,78% | -2,02% | 9,45% | 0,28% | -7,42% | -0,37% | -5,31% | 8,65% | 5,10% | -9,10% | ||||||||||||
| 38 | 0% | 9,80% | 0,72% | 3,36% | 4,54% | -3,16% | 1,25% | 0,03% | 2,31% | -0,47% | -7,85% | 2,24% | ||||||||||||
| 39 | 0% | -4,42% | 0,60% | 8,61% | -1,59% | -3,26% | 1,72% | -2,58% | 4,18% | 3,99% | 9,79% | 7,80% | ||||||||||||
| 40 | 0% | 0,90% | 0,32% | -8,52% | -5,40% | -4,72% | 9,47% | 2,49% | -3,66% | -2,90% | -5,34% | -3,80% | ||||||||||||
| 41 | 0% | -8,39% | 8,45% | 6,09% | -4,11% | -6,04% | -2,47% | -8,23% | 5,59% | -8,88% | 0,03% | -9,51% | ||||||||||||
| 42 | 0% | -2,34% | -4,47% | 0,93% | 5,14% | 3,32% | -5,55% | 1,40% | 2,42% | -4,90% | 9,51% | 5,77% | ||||||||||||
| 43 | 0% | -0,21% | 8,33% | 2,18% | 4,05% | -7,49% | -1,13% | -9,61% | -1,87% | 4,18% | -7,37% | -5,02% | ||||||||||||
| 44 | 0% | -5,81% | 2,19% | 0,87% | 7,64% | 0,49% | -2,83% | -7,91% | 9,38% | 2,71% | -4,64% | 0,43% | ||||||||||||
| 45 | 0% | 2,76% | -8,23% | -3,83% | 6,81% | -8,24% | -0,65% | -8,68% | 0,30% | 5,89% | 7,21% | 2,58% | ||||||||||||
| 46 | 0% | -8,28% | 6,39% | -5,50% | -7,21% | -9,26% | -6,92% | 2,21% | 0,03% | 1,28% | 1,72% | 9,55% | ||||||||||||
| 47 | 0% | -4,01% | -0,19% | -0,15% | 5,51% | 3,42% | -1,95% | -9,35% | -8,80% | 6,67% | 5,92% | -2,32% | ||||||||||||
| 48 | 0% | 8,30% | 0,28% | -2,13% | 2,40% | -4,49% | 7,10% | 3,28% | -6,40% | 1,46% | 7,55% | -0,10% | ||||||||||||
| 49 | 0% | 3,54% | 7,72% | -4,70% | -3,77% | -2,21% | 7,02% | -7,47% | -1,05% | 2,72% | -0,37% | -4,41% | ||||||||||||
| Вариант | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | 1 кв | 2 кв | 3 кв | 4 кв | |||||||||||||
| 50 | 0% | -8,64% | -2,18% | 5,52% | 8,95% | -3,42% | -8,20% | 0,18% | -2,57% | -0,79% | 4,19% | -6,93% | ||||||||||||
| 51 | 0% | -5,99% | -8,04% | -8,62% | 0,49% | 2,41% | -0,29% | 3,80% | 3,49% | -6,62% | -9,06% | -1,39% | ||||||||||||
| 52 | 0% | 4,97% | 8,58% | -7,46% | -4,14% | 9,45% | -5,30% | -4,52% | -3,14% | -2,38% | -6,31% | -7,71% | ||||||||||||
| 53 | 0% | -0,71% | 9,41% | 6,04% | -5,77% | 8,89% | -1,62% | 8,35% | -7,73% | -5,41% | -5,74% | 2,19% | ||||||||||||
| 54 | 0% | 7,53% | -6,20% | 7,97% | 4,80% | 6,35% | -0,16% | -4,05% | -1,91% | -4,80% | 4,55% | -0,51% | ||||||||||||
| 55 | 0% | 8,18% | 8,36% | -0,69% | -8,53% | 5,44% | -3,33% | 9,19% | 1,20% | 1,86% | 7,06% | 0,92% | ||||||||||||
| 56 | 0% | 5,16% | 4,77% | -4,00% | 8,55% | -8,96% | -5,86% | -8,12% | -6,03% | -4,65% | -3,01% | 0,93% | ||||||||||||
| 57 | 0% | -1,58% | -7,21% | 7,77% | 7,23% | 8,88% | 0,16% | -3,45% | -2,40% | 1,26% | -1,68% | -6,18% | ||||||||||||
| 58 | 0% | -5,15% | -1,29% | 5,79% | 3,21% | 4,30% | 3,32% | 1,34% | 5,99% | -5,32% | -4,32% | 1,43% | ||||||||||||
| 59 | 0% | 5,90% | -7,32% | 5,23% | 1,68% | -9,15% | -9,43% | -4,13% | 1,53% | 8,81% | 9,84% | -0,87% | ||||||||||||
| 60 | 0% | -5,50% | -5,32% | 5,70% | 8,45% | -4,32% | 5,25% | -0,03% | 4,75% | -6,00% | -2,44% | 6,40% | ||||||||||||
| 61 | 0% | -2,84% | -4,39% | 3,27% | 2,22% | 9,54% | 4,93% | 9,04% | 7,11% | 2,51% | -5,90% | -1,23% | ||||||||||||
| 62 | 0% | 4,34% | -7,05% | 0,73% | 0,32% | -1,95% | -8,84% | -2,83% | 7,13% | -4,84% | 5,74% | -7,62% | ||||||||||||
| 63 | 0% | 8,01% | 8,43% | 1,88% | 6,02% | -3,17% | -6,74% | -6,00% | -8,25% | -7,67% | -1,84% | 4,75% | ||||||||||||
| 64 | 0% | 5,75% | -1,39% | 2,99% | 5,73% | 7,98% | -0,31% | -1,57% | 3,37% | -3,57% | -9,36% | -0,22% | ||||||||||||
| 65 | 0% | -0,25% | -0,01% | -0,71% | -7,80% | -7,60% | -7,55% | -0,57% | -8,94% | 6,23% | 5,76% | 0,59% | ||||||||||||
| 66 | 0% | -3,21% | 8,01% | -4,43% | 6,05% | -9,85% | -2,26% | 8,40% | 0,99% | -4,32% | 1,02% | -0,36% | ||||||||||||
| 67 | 0% | 4,81% | 7,09% | 6,89% | 7,73% | 3,14% | -0,46% | -5,71% | -7,31% | -3,79% | -9,27% | 8,73% | ||||||||||||
| 68 | 0% | -3,39% | -6,18% | 6,79% | 9,00% | -7,18% | -3,44% | 6,50% | 3,65% | -6,41% | 3,05% | -4,59% | ||||||||||||
| 69 | 0% | -6,41% | -9,89% | -2,70% | -1,49% | Страница:            | ||||||||||||||||||